2024 Swing State US Opinion Polls Paint a Mixed Picture

Key Findings

Recent opinion polls in key swing states for the 2024 US presidential election reveal a complex and evolving political landscape. While some polls suggest a narrow lead for one candidate, others show a close race or even a lead for the opposing candidate. These findings underscore the fluidity of the race and the importance of ongoing polling and analysis.

Poll Results and Analysis

Florida

A recent poll by the University of North Florida found that Republican Governor Ron DeSantis holds a narrow lead over President Joe Biden, with 48% of likely voters supporting DeSantis and 45% supporting Biden. However, the poll also found that a significant number of voters, approximately 7%, remain undecided.

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, a key battleground state, a poll by Franklin & Marshall College showed Biden leading DeSantis by a margin of 52% to 43%. This poll suggests that Biden maintains a strong base of support in the state, despite DeSantis's popularity in other parts of the country.

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, another key swing state, a poll by Marquette University found that the race is essentially tied, with DeSantis leading by a mere 1%, within the margin of error. This poll highlights the competitiveness of the race in this crucial state.

Factors Influencing the Race

Economic Conditions

The state of the economy is likely to be a major factor in the 2024 presidential election. Voters in swing states are likely to be concerned about issues such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth.

Candidate Electability

The perceived electability of the candidates will also play a role in the race. Voters in swing states are often hesitant to support candidates who they believe cannot win the national election.

Political Polarization

Political polarization is another factor that could influence the outcome of the election in swing states. Voters in these states are increasingly divided along party lines, which could make it more difficult for candidates to appeal to a broad range of voters.

Conclusion

The 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be a closely contested race, with the outcome likely to hinge on the results in a handful of swing states. Recent opinion polls provide some insight into the current state of the race, but it is important to note that the political landscape is fluid and can change rapidly. As the election nears, it will be important to monitor polling data closely and to track the candidates' campaigns.